The possible withdrawal of the US from the nuclear deal with Iran lies in the same line of action of the current US administration, when further threats seem to be the case and do not go, but the current international order causes another destructive blow.
According to the approved Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (VCPP), Tehran pledged to strictly adhere exclusively to the peaceful limits in the development of its nuclear power under the control of the IAEA, and Russia, China, the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom significantly weakened anti-Iran sanctions.
In fact, six of the world’s leading players agreed with Iran on a global compromise. And the fact that this deal was approved by the UN Security Council only strengthened its international political significance.
Of course, we all remember that Washington reserves the right to withdraw from those treaties that it does not consider relevant to the more national interests of the States. But not in such cases: the disruption of the international transaction, confirmed by the UN Security Council resolution, may call into question the entire existing system of world stability.
Can the international community – and Washington’s current policy be concerned about a lot of powers – do something with the US in the sense of returning to the fold of the world order? The answer is ambiguous.
On the one hand, no one and nothing forbids the countries concerned to propose convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, since he to some extent became the guarantor of a compromise between Iran and the world community.
This option seems quite logical. In the end, Iran has already promised to withdraw from the SVAP in such a scenario. This, in turn, can provoke and other countries. For example, Iran resumes uranium enrichment at a depth of 90 m of the undergrounds of the Fordo plant near the city of Kum. This causes justified anxiety of Israel, which, I do not exclude, can take its response and, quite possibly, a forceful character. And this already creates a security threat at least on a regional scale.
In addition, there is another problem – the nuclear weapons of the so-called threshold countries. If Iran resumes its nuclear weapons program – why not want to create its own nuclear bomb of Saudi Arabia? And Turkey? And Brazil? The economy will allow, there are no special secrets in this matter. What will happen then with this option?
It is necessary to prevent the development of the situation today and now. But here the problem turns the other side: and can the UN Security Council stop the Washington in its devastating rage? Yes, the current international agreement can not be denounced by the decision of only one country. Therefore, there is a chance to keep the SVAP, wrapping the situation in such a way that it is only the US that left the agreement, and all other countries remain its guarantors. In this sense, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already expressed his regret about Trump’s decision, along with the hope that it will not lead to the termination of the agreement. And if you persuade Iran not to succumb to the American provocation, then, perhaps, the deal can be saved. Moreover, the resumption of UN sanctions against Tehran can not speak.
But in discussing, of course, theoretically, the question of imposing sanctions against the United States for violating an international treaty, in my opinion, can be fully established, even despite their veto power in the UN Security Council. Because in any case, the break-up of the deal with Iran through the fault of the States will change the situation in the world to a much more threatening level than it is today.
But there is a third side of the question. It is not excluded that what is happening around the deal with Iran is Trump’s next game, blackmail on his part. In Washington, after all, too, we must understand that from the standpoint of international law, those decisions that are adopted in consultation with the UN Security Council are binding. At least in an ideal. And, therefore, the United States can not withdraw from this agreement without placing itself on the other side of the barricades from Europe, Russia and China. This is fraught with various sensitive consequences, even for the United States, which do not particularly strive to comply with international legal norms. In particular, this may result in a split in the already-disappointed many actions of the current US administration in the Western camp.
What can Russia do in these circumstances? It’s unlikely that it makes sense to go on about Trump’s, and for his part to aggravate the situation. The same, for example, the convening of a meeting of the UN Security Council. But even without reaction, the actions of the American leadership can not be left. At all levels, including parliamentary, it is necessary to clearly express a negative attitude to the statements of Trump already at this stage. And of course, to do everything possible to deter Tehran from withdrawing from the deal. Then the United States will indeed be in political isolation, even if someone formally supports them.