The forthcoming midterm elections to the US Congress, which will be held on November 6, are of great importance for the political future of the country. They will have an impact not only on the legislative decision-making process, but also can trigger the impeachment procedure of the current president in case of transfer of control to a democratic party.
Currently, both chambers of the US Congress are dominated by Republicans, but history shows that the president’s party traditionally bears losses during the midterm elections.
The primaries are already in full swing in the country – inner-party elections, during which candidates from democrats and Republicans are determined to participate in the future race. The tendencies of this electoral cycle are an increase in the number of women among democrats seeking to compete for a particular position in government, on the one hand, and the victory of Republicans loyal to President Donald Trump, on the other. The main topics that invariably concern voters are health care, economics and jobs.
Elective Mathematics
Interim elections to the US authorities will be held on November 6, 2018. Elections take place in the middle of Trump’s presidential term. At stake – all 435 seats in the US House of Representatives and 33 seats out of 100 in the US Senate. In addition to federal congressmen and senators representatives are also elected to local authorities.
Republicans control both chambers of Congress, which greatly simplifies the procedure for making any decisions for Trump, although he likes to complain about obstacles imposed by Democrats. To control the party senate, it is necessary to get 51 seats, and in the House of Representatives – 218.
Currently, the Democrats have 49 seats in the US Senate and 51 from the Republicans. Democrats have to defend as many as 25 seats in the upcoming elections, while Republicans have only 8. In this regard, the situation for democrats is an order of magnitude more complicated. In addition, the Democrats have to defend their seats in 10 states, where voters supported Trump, not a candidate from the Democratic Party Hillary Clinton two years ago. These are the following states: Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Wisconsin, Florida, West Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Nevada – the only state where they supported Hillary Clinton and where they will have to defend the Republicans.
According to the forecasts of the independent center for the study of elections Cook Political Report, the main centers of the struggle will be Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, West Virginia. In these states, the chances of Republicans and Democrats to win are rated as “equal.”
With the US House of Representatives, things are different. If the senate every cycle is reelected only by a third, then the lower house is completely. This increases the unpredictability of the election outcome. Of the 435 seats – 236 are occupied by Republicans, and 193 – by Democrats, while the remaining 6 seats are not filled. According to the forecasts of the New York Times, 184 seats are precisely reserved for Democrats, and 156 seats are for Republicans. In this case, the aggregator of public opinion polls Real Clear Politics indicates that the Democrats provide themselves with 199 seats in the US House of Representatives, and Republicans – 201.
Impeachment from Democrats
Trump personally expressed concern over possible impeachment if the Democrats take control of the House of Representatives. As much as possible? If Democrats win in the US House of Representatives, they can begin the impeachment procedure, or at least sink the Trump administration into endless investigations – from a possible collusion with Russia and obstruction of justice before an investigation into the many contradictory figures of the Trump administration, including his son-in-law – Jared Kushner.
Meanwhile, the Democrats do not send clear signals about possible actions for impeachment in case of victory in elections. “Some Democratic candidates promise to lead an impeachment campaign against the president. At the same time, there are party leaders who call for caution in attempts to dislodge the president, “writes the newspaper Politico.
At the legislative level, the transition to democrats of both chambers of the US Congress will definitely make it more difficult for the Republicans to pass any bills that their opponents do not support. Also, the control of Democrats in the Senate can greatly limit the prospects for appointing future candidates to the courts, this also applies to possible appointments to the Supreme Court. A similar fate can await Trump candidates for ministerial positions and heads of various federal agencies.
A distinctive feature of the upcoming elections is the incredibly high level of women’s participation in the election race. New Yorker published a large article on women running for the “Trump era.” According to the magazine, this year nearly 500 women entered the struggle for a place in the House of Representatives, about 60 – in the Senate race. For example, in 2012 this figure was 298 and 36, respectively. A record number of women are running for governor.
“The majority of female candidates in 2018 are Democrats, so it seems that we can conclude that many of them were spurred by discontent, if not rage, by Donald Trump,” New Yorker writes.
In addition to the impressive number of women participating in the elections, the diversity of this group is also a distinctive feature. “It (the group – ed.) Includes more women of different skin color than it was in previous electoral cycles, as well as a number of immigrants,” the magazine writes.
The last time that women so actively challenged gender inequality in politics was in 1992 – it is also called the “Year of Women”. Then immediately 24 women were elected to the US House of Representatives.
One of the brightest individuals running for the US House of Representatives is the 43-year-old Farooz Saad from Michigan. Saad is the daughter of a Lebanese immigrant. She decided to go to the polls because of Trump. More precisely, contrary to Trump. In her pre-election video, she says that in Arabic her name means “valuable stone,” and in English – “at least 17 different spellings on a cup in Starbucks.” She immediately stated that she would not do what Trump does, “to divide us, to attack women, to offend journalists.” “I will try to overcome differences,” Saad said. In case of victory, she will become the first Muslim woman in the US Congress.
If among the democrats the number of women actively participating in politics grows, then the Republicans also observe interesting trends. Expert Cook Political Report David Wasserman believes that the trend of the Republican party in the primaries is that those who oppose the president lose. In an interview with NPR radio, he said that the large number of retiring “moderate” Republicans leads to this. This, in his opinion, could lead to the fact that the Republican Party will become more “a pro-Tramp, loyal White House.”
At the same time, Democrats, watching this trend, began to spend huge sums to support their candidates. Thanks to Trump.
“Democrats allocate record amounts for their candidates in many districts. Trump, it turns out, was the best fundraiser that anyone from the Democratic Party could ever get, “says Wasserman.
The chances of the Democrats winning in the midterm elections are, and not small. Even a loyal Republican party, the Fox News television channel believes that the Conservatives have great reasons for concern, and now the Democrats have the main advantage over the interim elections. Firstly, due to the fact that the president’s party traditionally loses seats during the mid-term elections, and secondly, because historically low ratings of Trump’s approval put the Republicans in a very difficult position. So, according to TV, Trump’s average approval ratings are 10 percentage points below Obama’s ratings during the same period in 2010 (before the mid-term elections and the Republicans win). The only interim elections that looked worse for the Republicans were the 2006 elections, when the Democrats passed control in the Senate and House of Representatives, Fox News said.